There is a monthly “Skeptic Salon” run by the Chicago Skeptics, aka a book club. This month’s selection is How To Lie With Statistics by Darrell Huff, 142 pages, written in 1954, copyright renewed in 1982. What follows is a short summary.

He talks about the difference between mean (average) and median. He talks about sample response (Yale salaries: Perhaps those who were poor did not respond, thus lifting the reported average to be greater than the reported average), is the sample big enough, changing the axis of charts (starting at 90 instead of 0 for changes between 95 and 100 can make the changes look much larger than they are) to mislead (intentionally or otherwise), using figures to distort: if b is two times as big as A, then the image for B should only be twice as tall or twice as wide. If you make it twice as tall AND twice as wide, you are making B appear about 4 to 6 times larger, and the post hoc ergo proctor hoc fallacy.

The last chapter he gives hints on how to spot bad or misleading statistics. It is almost a small skeptic primer.

• Who Says So: look for bias from whoever gives you the stat: conscious bias, unconscious bias
• How Does He Know: A survey was sent to a large number of companies, but only 14% responded. The survey was trying to determine if the firms were price gouging. A sample could be biased. It could be too small.
• Did Somebody Change the Subject: Learn to distinguish between the raw figure and the conclusion. More cases of a disease does not mean more people are getting it. It may simply have been misdiagnosed in the past, or people had it but died of something else
• Does It Make Sense: Social Security makes no sense. It is set up to give benefits when people reach the age of 65, but the average life expectency (at the time) was only 63. Nobody will live long enough to get the benefits. Also: Trends will not continue forever as they have in the past: TV ownership was increasing 10,000% from 1947 to 1952. That cannot continue forever.

Image from Wikimedia

I am once again considering moving to Seattle.

I mentioned in a prior post that when I was unemployed I asked my friends in various cities what their cities were like. A couple of them lived in Seattle.

I mentioned that one of the things I liked about Chicago is that I do not need a car to get around. One of them, MSL (I will identify them by their initials) said that he did not have a car and got by fine without it. Another, JL, who was MSL’s roommate in college, gave me a different opinion. He said there is mass transit, and you can get by without a car, but it is not too convenient. JL said that Seattle is not as green as its reputation. I told him that MSL said he got by fine without a car. JL informed me that MSL had gotten injured mountain climbing, and was unemployed for quite a while, so he did not really need a car. Taking an hour to get across a city is not that big of a deal when you do not have to go anywhere most of the time. I got the impression that JL and MSL had kind of drifted apart. But JL’s assessment led to my crossing Seattle off my list.

A few years have passed, and I am unemployed again. When I spoke to him a couple of years ago, JL said that he loved living in Seattle and hoped to stay there his entire life. He and his wife have now moved to San Francisco. I think they may have moved for his wife’s job. JL has been working on a book featuring interviews with people who have lived in countries that were/are under martial law. At some point I will ask him why he started this book. His degree is in electrical engineering. How one goes from EE to martial law is a story I would like to hear.

MSL is employed, and he has also left Seattle. He is now in Amman, Jordan. I will call him on Skype sometime and ask him how/why he wound up there.

I needed to talk to EYL, MSL’s sister. I thought she and her husband were living in New Jersey near Philidelphia, but they have moved to Seattle. So after we discussed the topic that I needed her assistance for, we talked about Seattle.

I last spoke to her around the same time I was in contact with JL and MSL. I was looking at job in Madison, Wisconsin. I told her I did not want to live there. It seemed pretty depressing when I went there in February of that year. As lonely as Chicago can be, I thought that Madison would feel even worse. She gave some positives about Madison: It is a pretty liberal town, there is a technology scene, it is a college town with college women. This actually made me think that I should look into Austin more. I realized that just about all of the positive attributes she listed for Madison also applied to Austin, and Austin had one more: Its population is three times that of Madison.

She said that unlike Madison, Seattle actually has a metropolitan area: about 3 million people. She said her nanny gets by fine without a car. Her husband works for Microsoft as a contractor. She said that there are a lot of technology companies in Seattle besides just Microsoft and Amazon.

She told me that while Texas can be hot in the summer, it is only for a few months. But she was not too crazy about the weather in Seattle. It can be kind of depressing.

I have been to Portland, but I have never been to Seattle. I am still leaning towards Texas, but I will also start keeping an eye on Seattle.

Image from Wikipedia

Last night I watched an episode of Star Trek: Enterprise titled “Future Tense.” I think it is one of the best episodes of any Star Trek series that I have seen.

I watched the original series and saw all the TOS films. I have seen almost every episode of The Next Generation, and I have seen all of the TNG films except the last one. I have only seen about a third of Deep Space Nine, and I have never watched a full episode of Voyager. I have never owned a television, so I am slacking on my Star Trek viewing. Perhaps someday the Star Trek videos site will have all the episodes from every series available.

I have gathered that a lot of Star Trek fans do not like Enterprise. But do you really think that every episode of TOS was a winner? Also, I think that if Gene Roddenberry had not been involved with TNG for the first few seasons it would not have lasted as long as it did. I think it started to get good in season 3. Deep Space Nine also took a while to get off the ground.

I like Enterprise. One episode I did not like is “A Night In Sick Bay“, although the dream sequence with Pothos’ funeral was hilarious.

Off the top of my head, my favorite TOS episodes are “Balance of Terror” and “The Enterprise Incident“. My favorite TNG episodes are “The Best of Both Worlds“  (I think just about all the Borg episodes were good), “Yesterday’s Enterprise“, “Booby Trap“, “All Good Things…“  and “Parallels“. I also liked “Masks“, although I know most people did not. Nothing wrong with taking risks.

If you are going to jump into “Future Tense”, you should probably watch all the episodes about the Temporal Cold War.

Enterprise does have the same prequel paradox the Star Wars prequel trilogy had: It takes place in an earlier time and all the technology is supposed to be less advanced, yet all the technology looks more advanced.

Image from Memory Alpha, copyright owned by CBS,  presumed to be allowed under Fair Use

Here is my dividend income for January, 2012.

The total was $188.68. The total for the same stocks 3 months ago (October, 2011) was $208.90. As I mentioned in my previous dividend income update, Coca-Cola (KO) is on a weird dividend schedule. They paid a dividend in October, 2011, and their next dividend payment was in December, 2011. The total for October, 2011 without KO was $165.13. So I think it is fair to say my dividend income is going up.

Here are the totals:

• Automatic Data Processing: $21.64
• MDU Resources Group Inc: $8.71
• Kimberly-Clark: $36.20
• Chubb Corp: $8.11
• Illinois Tool Works: $18.33
• Altria Group: $22.12
• Family Dollar Stores Inc: $4.77
• Piedmont Natural Gas Inc: $15.10
• Valspar Corp: $11.24
• Cincinnati Financial Corp: $17.20
• Sysco Corp: $13.98
• RPM International Inc: $11.28

Image from Wikimedia

There is an error on the RSS feed for tonight’s episode of “Mad Money”.

The Dow ended the best January since 1997, closing down 21 points.  Cramer explains what’s working and what’s not.  Then, Jim explains the fabled golden cross.  Plus, Cramer puts on his ski gear to find out if PII is snowballign.  And, could D provide you with a natural solution?  Cramer gets the details.

Also, they gave the link for tonight’s “Fast Money”. What is up with that? WHERE’S CRAMER????

It looks like another Enterprise night.

Image from Memory Alpha, copyright owned by CBS,  presumed to be allowed under Fair Use

On 2006-04-18, I attended a lecture at DePaul by James Kunstler, an author and podcaster who has written on Peak Oil. I found out about it after I started attending the now-defunct Chicago Peak Oil Awareness Group.

I kept my notes. Each paragraph is a page from my notes. I have chosen to type them in as I wrote them, so some of the sentences will be a bit choppy.

Contributes to NYTimes Sunday magazine. Stocks up today, oil prices up to. Mostly: implications of peak oil. What are we going to do? Hubbert: Made predictions in the 1950s, said USA would peak in 1970s, was laughed at. 1973: Foreign countries take over, 1980s: OPEC loses leverage. Long Emergency: Includes climate change (like Katrina). Oil and insurance companies are rethinking Gulf of Mexico. We must make other arrangements. There will be no “hydrogen economy”. Alternative energies cannot run WalMart, Disney World and highways. “Teh Heroic suburbs”. Cheney said the American way of life is non-negotiable. This is a false message; things will be negotiated for us.

Some say subrubia is okay because people like it and people choose it. The question will not be what do we like but what is possible. Suburbia: cheap energy, cheap land. We put our wealth into a way of life with no future. Suburbia is “entropy made visible”. Dirty secret: basis of American economy is the housing bubble. The mortgage mill industry has replaced actual industry. We have put so much into this; the psychology of previous investment produces denial behavior. America’s leading religion: worship of unearned riches, getting something for nothing. Our society wishes for rescue remedies.

Gambling is reparations for Anerican Indians. Technology != energy. Kunstler went to Google. Lots of games, snack stations, executives and engineers dressed like skateboarders. It was an infantile company. pay attention to “tech == energy”. Airlines is the first industry that will go down. We will use what we can, but not the way that people think, perhaps on a neighborhood/district basis. We will live more locally. No more WalMart, or 300 mile Caesar salad. “Rocky Mountain Institute”: trying to produce a hybrid car. That promotes the idea that we can be a car-centric society. Social implications: Motoring will become less democratic. We must restore American railroad system. This would have the biggest effect. The infrastructure is there. Bolivia would be ashamed of our rails system.

We need a project to boost confidence. We should not be passive victims of history. Trains, barges and boats are more efficient than trucks. “The downscaling of America”. How we feed ourselves, trade, inhabit terrain. Globalism is transient, it needs cheap energy and world peace. We are seeing more friction between countries fighting for oil. China is much closer to Central Asia. Crop yields will go down. Crops will be grown for people. Kunstler does not know what the other arrangements will be. A lot of economic losers will be around. A lot of turbulence in the former middle class. Fascism: Americans will beg to be pushed around. You will be lucky if the feds answer the phone. Kuntsler thinks it will not be an orderly transition. It may get violent. Living standards will go down.

WalMart will be toast in 10 years. They are really very fragile, just a warehouse on wheels. “Bargain shopping”, but what is the bargain? Mega-city: Cities will contract, centers will densify, especially along waterfronts We will get more serious about boats. Buildings are being made to be heated with natural gas. Many Midwestern cities are contracting now. Buildings will be 5 floors and under. Cities will be gothic/medieval in scale. We will have electricity if we are lucky. Mechanics will be very necessary. Now we are in automobile slum. “The public realm” will come back. Knowing your history allows you to face the future with confidence. It gives you a hopefil present. We have places not worth caring about. Suburbia is not worthy of us.

He saw a bumper sticker on a Ford Expedition that said “War is not the answer.” If you drive an SUV, war IS the answer. Young people will be forced to be heroic. We are a nation of clowns. We will need to get serious. We used to be an earnest people, no wishing for the Powerball lottery. Public speaking will be an important skill. We need a serious discussion about nuclear. Heating houses will resolve themselves in 5 years. 1890s: 10% of the workforce was servants. Urbal/rural distinction may become very sharp again. Subrbia muddled the distinction. In 25 years, electircity may not be around.

Many laws mandate suburban sprawl. Phoenix, Arizona will shrink a lot, due to energy and water. For Las Vegas, the excitement will be over. The problem with pushing biofuels is that assumes we will have an orderly transition. It may be disorderly. Marketing, PR may not be around much longer. Adults do not engage in wishful thinking. There is a failure of authority, and of the legitimacy of authority. College may be elitist again.

Image from Wikimedia

Vanilla Coke Zero is the best thing ever. I drink a lot of it. A lot. So much that I think I need to cut back.

Usually when you do something too often, YOU are the last person to realize you do it too often. So I REALLY need to cut back. Especially since I do not have a job right now.

Advatage of drinking: Tangy vanilla kick.

Disadvantages: I can spend a lot of money on it, there is the environmental impact of the cans, I go to the bathroom a lot, aluminum on the brain.

I hate to say that there are more disadvantages than advantages. I am trying to only drink six cans a day. Before I was drinking 12. That is way too much.

2012-01-30_08.25.04 Update:

Another advantage of buying Vanilla Coke Zero is I would be helping out a company that I have stock in.

Although it would be much better if you bought more Coca-Cola than me. So go buy some tangy Vanilla Coke Zero.

Image from Wikipedia, main product page on Coca-Cola site

Here are some notes on different topics that I had lying around. I think I wrote them in the mid-2000′s.

Why do people think Rethuglicans are strong on defense? Iraq is a disaster. So is Afghanistan.

A lot of people seem to think that strong is just go hurt somebody. People are too concerned about looking tough. They do not care about being smart. Knowing ahead of invading that Sunnis, Shiites and Kurds do not get along would have been good.

Iraq is proving Sun T’zu: wars are not always won by whoever has the strongest army, but whoever has the most knowledge of the entire situation.
———————————–

Some Rethuglicans call Carter naive. As opposed to who? Bush and Cheney? A president who works for peace or a president who starts wars he cannot finish.

(A lot of conservatives think they know “how the world works” simply because they think they know how the world works.)

———————————–
Abortion:
Sister: pro-choice
but with same guy forever
Living with mom
if she is getting knocked up by a different guy every month, she has a lot of people fooled

I think for a lot of women it is about not wanting men controlling them. Why some women date assholes is another issue.

———————————–
Activist judge: you don’t hear conservatives complaining about signing statements
Bush v Gore was activist judging. The whole court switched sides on federalism/state rights’ issues, and said that decision could not be used as a precedent.

———————————–
Reagan should have been impeached for Iran/Contra
not only defying Congress, but giving arms to enemies of America, and then claiming to know nothing about it. Leadership is not just taking credit for the good stuff.

If he was really not involved, he would have thrown whoever did it in jail.

(see summary of 1980s here  from Immoral Minority  and another here)
———————————–
A lot of Rethuglicans just regurgitate “Saddam is out of power.” But so what? Iran is stronger. USA is bleeding money. Iraqis are killing and torturing each other. But Rethugs love privatizing everything. So maybe that makes everything okay.

I listen to a few of the podcasts that are part of Leo Laporte’s TWiT network. One that I went through is Maxwell’s House, which was discontinued.

One episode that I really liked was episode 63, A Review Of The U.S. Space Program. Ray Maxwell was an engineer and helped design and build a few of the rockets that were part of the Apollo program. It is a really good episode. Go listen to it.

In this episode, he talked briefly about the launch of Sputnik, and the effect it had on the USA. There was a big push for math and science. He said something that really struck me: There were no debates about evolution back then. I kind of wish I was around back then.

He and the host pined for the good old days of science. They thought that perhaps if there was another competing superpower that people would be more willing to support science. I wonder if many people in the USA today know that China has put a few people into space.

Viva science!!

Image from Maxwell’s House, part of the TWiT network

Stuff I found while cleaning my apartment:

• old poetry
• 2 dollar bill from 2003
• 2 dollar bill from 1976 (they have not changed much)
• south vietnamese 20 dong note
• 1973 west german coin
• pictures of my sister taken when she was a baby
• A nickel that I used a few times as a guitar pick that flattened by putting it on a train track and letting a train run it over