2019-02 Dividend Income Report

Here is the dividend income report for February, 2019.

The monthly dividend income came out to $138.45. The yearly income total for 2019 through the end of the month was $229.17.

The income for February, 2018 was $66.43, and the yearly income for 2018 through the end of February was $126.02.

There is not really a whole lot to say this month. I plan on writing about the indexes tracked by the ETFs I have invested in, as well as a few others. It is good to know what you are buying.

There are some indexes that are made by small shops and their licensed ETFs can have high expense ratios.

Here is a table with the year-to-date amounts, the monthly amounts, and the three- and twelve-month moving averages for each February from 2012 through 2019:

Month YTD Amount 3MMA 12MMA
2019-02 $229.17 $138.45 $847.72 $589.58
2018-02 $126.02 $66.43 $654.60 $581.51
2017-02 $684.93 $466.05 $570.90 $511.78
2016-02 $620.16 $383.08 $524.89 $460.41
2015-02 $567.34 $353.85 $492.40 $375.72
2014-02 $496.28 $336.61 $363.62 $295.33
2013-02 $358.51 $248.39 $348.20 $287.16
2012-02 $497.58 $308.90 $337.51 $264.48

 

Here are the securities and the income amounts for February, 2019:

  • Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF: $40.91
  • Vanguard Total International Bond ETF: $11.25
  • Money Market Fund: $86.29

Big Jim had another good month.

Page from Gelati Gospel, 12th-century illuminated manuscript from the other Georgia, assumed allowed under Fair Use.

Share

Remaining 2016 Tweets

I put a page on Everyday Images with the remaining 2016 tweets that were not on the site yet.

Big Jim only tweets about the important stuff.

“Christ Carrying the Cross” by El Greco (1541 – 7 April 1614), at El Greco’s site, assumed allowed under Fair Use.

Share

2019-01 Dividend Income Report

Here is the dividend income report for January, 2019.

The monthly dividend income came out to $90.72. The yearly income total for 2019 through the end of the month was $90.72.

The income for January, 2018 was $59.59, and the yearly income for 2018 through the end of January was $59.59.

For this month, I started counting a money market fund I have at one of my brokerage accounts. I was thinking of using the money to buy bond funds. I did some calculations, and I think that I will make just as much leaving it as it is. Plus, they count the income as “dividends” and not “interest”. So this means that I have been undercounting my dividend income for a while.

One event that happened in January is the death of John Bogle. He was and is one of the most important men in finance. Some people say he was one of the greatest men they had ever met. He has certainly helped millions of people save billions of dollars in fees.

For myself, I went from indexing, to individual stocks, back to indexing, although I now invest in indexes for dividend growth stocks, and not the overall market.

He seemed to get into indexing by accident. He was forced out of his company after a bad merger. He started Vanguard, and started indexing because he could not be an active stock picker. But over time he became an investor advocate and moral authority.

Bogle is like Warren Buffett: an advocate for investors. When Berkshire’s 13-F comes out, and a stock is mentioned in it, you know that it is a good investment. Buffett is a stamp of approval. When Buffett passes, who will be a guide for the common man? Perhaps indexing is enough a part of the culture that we do not need an advocate anymore.

Here is a table with the year-to-date amounts, the monthly amounts, and the three- and twelve-month moving averages for each January from 2012 through 2019:

Month YTD Amount 3MMA 12MMA
2019-01 $90.72 $90.72 $818.52 $583.57
2018-01 $59.59 $59.59 $819.32 $614.81
2017-01 $218.88 $218.88 $584.54 $504.86
2016-01 $237.08 $237.08 $550.81 $457.97
2015-01 $213.49 $213.49 $471.54 $374.28
2014-01 $159.67 $159.67 $335.67 $287.98
2013-01 $110.12 $110.12 $348.07 $292.20
2012-01 $188.68 $188.68 $316.66 $256.77

 

Here are the securities and the income amounts for January, 2019:

  • Money Market Fund: $90.72

Big Jim thinks this year is off to a good start.

“Behold The Bridegroom” by Γύζης Νικόλαος (Nikolaos Gyzis) (1842 -1901), on exhibit at the National Gallery in Athens, assumed allowed under Fair Use.

Share

Thoughts On Recent Events

Here are a few thoughts about some recent political events.

First off, James Mattis resigned as Secretary of Defense.

He has been lauded as the “adult in the room.” I think this is bad. There are a few issues with Mattis. Just as there were with John McCain, and George HW Bush. We need to stop letting people off the hook (even for minor infractions) just because they are not as bad as Donald Trump or anyone else in his orbit.

For one thing, I do not think he should have been defense secretary. He has not been out of the military long enough . If civilian control of the military is that important, there should not be any waivers. Granted, nobody else wanted the job. And he is not as crazy as John Bolton. But being more sane that Bolton is like being younger than dirt: That is a broad range.

At least Mattis is not a total tool like John Kelly. He lied about a speech given by representative Frederica Wilson, even after a video surfaced proving she was right and he was wrong. Nothing says you are part of a cult like doubling down on a lie even when the evidence is there for all to see. I don’t think Mattis looks down upon people who were never in the military, like Kelly seems to, or spout nonsense like, “In fact, in a way we’re a little bit sorry because you’ll never have experienced the wonderful joy you get in your heart when you do the kinds of things our servicemen and -women do.” Does John Kelly have any idea who he was working for? Has anyone in the Trump family ever cared about anyone but themselves? And if Kelly took not just one, but two jobs from Trump, then what does that say about him and his feelings about service? Enjoy your retirement in Virginia, jackass. But again, not getting sucked into Neo-Confederate BS is a low bar to clear.

Mattis was involved in Theranos, both during his time in the military, and was on the board afterwards. So he is a bit swampy.  And he seems too eager to go after Iran, even though a lot of Saudis have done some shady things in the US and gotten help from the Saudi government getting out on several occasions and they are spreading Wahhabism through out the Middle East. And let’s not forget our good friend Mohammad Bone Saw.

Working for Trump has been a black mark for everyone else who has done it. Why should Mattis get a pass? He is not some 18-year old out of boot camp who probably only knows the chain of command a few levels up from his sergeant. When you are offered a Cabinet-level position, you know who is offering it to you.

His resignation letter contrasted the US to Russia and China. Did he just realize that he is working for the new POTUS? (These days, “POTUS” does not mean “President of the United States”, but “Putin’s Operative in the United States.) Trump bad mouths Democrats, half of his constituents, many foreign leaders, but gives dictators a pass. Trump has a presumption of guilt for most Americans, and a presumption of innocence for foreign authoritarians. I don’t know what those geniuses at the Hoover Institute talk about all day, but roughly 65,853,514 people could have told him how this was going to work out.

The Trump administration is a disaster. He lost the popular vote, but acts like he is god-emperor. Let’s not use Mattis or anyone else as a contrast. Let’s not let people off the hook for their own misdeeds simply because they are not the worse person in the world (that would be Donald Trump). The President should not need an adult in the room. The room should be full of adults. Seriously, Mr Smarty Pants General, what did you think was going to happen?

In other news, Elizabeth Warren has started an exploratory committee to run for President in 2020 (the old kind of POTUS, not the Russian kind we have now). And, predictable, Trump called her “Pocahontas”. Again. For a guy who is supposed to be soooo smart, he doesn’t display much capacity for thought.

Elizabeth Warren thought she was part Native American because her grandmother told her she was. When you grow up in Oklahoma, and your grandmother tells you that you are part Native American, that is a good reason for thinking you are Native American. DNA was first discovered in 1953. Elizabeth Warren was born in 1949. So all these conservative wack-jobs insisting she take a DNA test are a bit unfair. DNA was not a household term when Elizabeth Warren was growing up. Heck, her grandmother was probably born in the 1800s. Using DNA in court is a recent thing. To expect Elizabeth Warren’s grandmother to have known things about DNA then that we know now is just sloppy thinking. Pro tip: When you challenge someone for evidence, and the evidence gives you an answer you do not like, admit you were wrong. Don’t reject the test as fake like the MAGA crowd did. Just admit you don’t like her and leave it at that. And seriously, is that all you got?

Interesting fact: The current Principal Chief of the Cherokee Nation is only about 3% Cherokee.

And finally, there is the shutdown. The Trump Shutdown. Let’s stop blaming both sides. This is the Trump Shutdown. Make America grind to a halt.

He had a GOP House and a GOP Senate for two years to get this wall started. If it such an important campaign promise to his base, why did he wait until he knew he was going to get a Democratic House that would not give him everything that he wants? He made these threats while the GOP still had the House. Why wait? They had no problem getting a bunch of corporate judges in, or tax cuts for the wealthy that do not do anything for anybody else. I guess the wall is just like repealing the ACA: They can’t really do it because then they can’t use it to score points with voters.

I have read a few articles that some conservatives are hoping to use this to permanently shrink the government. If so, then why was this not mentioned during the campaign? I do not think Trump started this shutdown with any long-term plan. People may not like the idea, but I think the government is a bigger part of our lives than people think, and before too long, this shutdown will start to hurt a lot of people. The feds are involved in things like air traffic control and food inspection. I didn’t sign up to spend every day putting my life in the hands of fate and acting like the past 5,000 years never happened. A lot of economic data comes from the Department of Commerce, which is currently shut down. I think big business is going to want to see all that data keep coming in. IPOs are on hold. I wonder if dividends will still come through since the SEC is shut down.

Another thing that the federal government funds is scientific research. So while China is growing plants on the far side of the moon, our government is run by a carnival barker who kills everything he touches. I think one of the Founding Fathers said the USA was more likely to be destroyed from within that from without. That is what we are seeing.

Big Jim is starting to think that some people actually want to be taken advantage of.

“The Immaculate Conception”, one of many by Francisco de Zurbarán (1598-1664) at the El Paso Museum of Art; assumed allowed under Fair Use.

Share

2018-12 Dividend Income Report

Here is the dividend income report for December, 2018.

The monthly dividend income came out to $2313.99. The yearly income total for 2018 through the end of the month was $6971.76.

The income for December, 2017 was $1837.78, and the yearly income for 2017 through the end of December was $7536.98.

I had my money in individual stocks from 2010 until late 2017. In 2017, I sold almost all of my stocks except RLI, and I put the money into ETFS: domestic and international bonds, domestic and international real estate, domestic and international dividend stocks, and a utilities fund. I bought the ETFs in December of 2017, and got payouts from those funds in late December. So any comparison of the ETF approach with the individual stock approach needs to take into account that I was double-dipping in the markets in December.

I also got some dividends from individual stocks in 2018 even though I had sold in 2017. I guess this is an example of all that ex-date and record date stuff that I do not think long-term investors need to worry about. You can read about that stuff here. I held a lot of the stocks that I bought for five to seven years. I doubt that missing one quarter’s payment will condemn me to eating cat food when I am old.

In December of 2017, I got $816.26 from dividend ETFs. If we subtract that from the 2017 total of $7536.98, we get $6720.72. In 2018, I got $80.74 from individual stocks othe than RLI. Subtracting that from our 2018 total of $6971.76 gives us $6891.02. So 2017 was still my best year up until that point, and I made more with the ETF strategy in 2018 than I made with individual stocks in 2017. It may seem pedantic to these calculations, but I think it is an accurate way of looking at and comparing the two strategies. I don’t change strategies too often.

Or maybe I am changing tactics because I am still investing mostly in dividend growth companies, but just doing it in a different, more indirect way.

I did not re-invest all the money I got from selling the individual stocks, so I could have done better in 2018 than I did. I might put that money into a commodities fund, a yieldco fund, or an insurance company ETF.

One of the reasons I kept RLI is I think the insurance industry will do well going forward. Insurance against damage caused by climate change will be in high demand going forward. I will have to look into this more. RLI did lose money due to hurricane claims. But my shares are worth a lot more than I paid for them, both due to capital gains and reinvesting dividends.

One thing I like about this approach is that it is a lot less work. I track my money in GnuCash, and I also have a spreadsheet for my investments; there are some things that I do not know how to do in GnuCash, like moving averages, and I have formulas to compare the value of the shares against what is spent, and a few others. I used to keep track of when companies have press releases announcing their dividends, and what the record and payout dates were. I used to have to enter in a LOT of information for all the stocks I was in. Now there is a lot less.

On the other hand, I wonder if this will help me stay afloat when I am older. This has been a concern for a while. My income is increasing by about $500 to $1000 a year. This includes new money into my IRA and from more shares from re-invested dividends. I guess I thought there would be some acceleration at some point, but it does not seem to be happening.

Here is a table with the year-to-date amounts, the monthly amounts, and the three- and twelve-month moving averages for each December from 2011 through 2018:

Month YTD Amount 3MMA 12MMA
2018-12 $6971.76 $2313.99 $1165.08 $580.98
2017-12 $7536.98 $1837.78 $913.40 $628.08
2016-12 $6076.53 $1027.76 $605.28 $506.38
2015-12 $5472.07 $954.52 $575.86 $456.01
2014-12 $4438.02 $909.86 $481.67 $369.80
2013-12 $3406.20 $594.59 $344.05 $283.85
2012-12 $3585.01 $686.10 $386.41 $298.75
2011-12 $3091.99 $514.94 $323.40 $253.92

Here are the securities and the income amounts for December, 2018:

  • Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF: $39.41
  • Vanguard Total International Bond ETF: $10.59
  • Vanguard REIT ETF: $199.20
  • Vanguard Utilities ETF: $209.32
  • Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF: $234.77
  • RLI Corp: $30.75
  • RLI Corp: $139.79
  • Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF: $40.80
  • Vanguard Total International Bond ETF: $223.82
  • Vanguard International Dividend Appreciation ETF: $47.82
  • Vanguard Global ex-US Real Estate ETF: $279.54
  • Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF, Rollover IRA: $302.29
  • Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF, Roth IRA: $451.20
  • Vanguard International High Dividend Yield ETF: $104.69

RLI paid a regular dividend of $0.22, and a special dividend of $1.00. Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF and Vanguard Total International Bond ETF each had two payouts in December. For some reason bond funds have two payouts in December and none in January. I hold shares of Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF in two separate accounts.

Big Jim had a pretty good year.

Image  from Wikimedia, assumed allowed under Fair Use. Painting “Aparición de la Virgen a San Isidro sobre el cielo de Bolonia” by Francisco José de Goya y Lucientes, or just Goya (1746-1828). Goya does have a website, although this painting is not on it.

Share

Thoughts On Dogs In Stores

I am adding an item to my list of “Signs That Someone is an Asshole“: Bringing a dog into a store.

I have been seeing more people bringing dogs into stores and even restaurants. I always thought that was a violation of health codes. I have blogged about this before. Airlines are cracking down on “emotional support animals“.

Most of the times that I have seen people bring dogs into businesses, they have been women. Usually low class women. Low class, high crass and total trash. Sometimes they are older women who wear too much makeup, tight pants that might have looked okay on them decades ago, or leopard print. Sometimes all three. Call it the trash-fecta.

If they are younger, usually they are fat, with blue hair and tattoos. Three bad things that do not add up to a good thing.

I don’t think any of these people are actually suffering from PTSD. Like I wrote before, some people are allergic to dogs. If you really cannot leave home without your dog, solve your problems on your own. Or stay home.

Big Jim is against class discrimination, unless you act like trash, or put people at risk.

“Female Nude with a Dog (Portrait of Leotine Renaude)” by Gustave Courbet (1819-1877) , at Musee d’Orsay, assumed allowed under Fair Use.

Share

The Bush And The Dead

The recent death of George HW Bush has sparked a lot of discussions about many topics: His presidency, his personality and the contrast with Trump, and whether it is wrong to “speak ill of the dead”. Much of the discussion has bordered on hagiography (in the non-ecclesiastical sense of the word). I don’t think he was that great of a president, and I do not think that saying so is “speaking ill of the dead”.

Whenever Trump fires someone from his administration, he says that they are “some sort of Democrat”. As if being a Democrat is a bad thing. And if Trump doesn’t like Democrats, why is he putting them in his cabinet? Trump’s behavior is boorish and crass. We had nice presidents up until January, 2017. Part of the glowing coverage of Bush 41 is that he looks good in contrast to Trump. I think this is a mistake. Bush 41 had some bad policies, and his son had worse policies. Going through life saying, “At least he’s not as bad as the last guy” is a recipe for disaster. We should not normalize or accept bad policy. We should not excuse bad policy from a president just because he can act like an adult in public.

What about Bush 41 did I not like? First of all, this guy was a Republican. With all the nastiness that entails. He helped bring John Birch theocrats into the party. He said Reagan’s policies were “voodoo economics”, then embraced them. He was right the first time, and should have stuck to his guns. He brought negative campainging to a new low with the Willie Horton ads.

If you don’t think Republicans are nasty people, then consider that even in his so-called repentance, Lee Atwater never really accepted responsibility for his actions. He talked about a “spiritual vacuum at the heart of American society”, how our society was warped by “its ruthless ambitions and moral decay”. No, Mr Atwater, the problem was not society, it was you. You did that. You chose to do that. To be mean, spiteful and deceitful. And Mr Bush, you paid him to do it.

Bush 41 was part of the trend by Republicans to make “liberal” a dirty word. He said Michael Dukakis was a “card-carrying member of the ACLU”, as if that is a bad thing. Conservatives have trouble with the concept that you cannot love your country if you have half of the people in it.

The religious fanaticism, the hatred of the poor, the deification of finance over all else: Bush 41 was a part of that. He was a part of taking the Republican Party on the path of decay. He was a part of the trend that put party over country. This man that we were told was a class act either never saw what was in front of him, or never spoke up against it.

Granted, he did raise taxes on the rich. Lower taxes are nice, but people need to get in their heads that cutting taxes and raising spending is not a good idea, even when presidents you like do it. So GHWB did the right thing and defied his party. Once. But more often than not he consented to the dark side.

His invasions of Panama and Kuwait were based on lies. They had nothing to do with freedom or democracy. He got rid of Noriega because Noriega was making the US look bad, and Kuwait was all about oil. The USA thought they could control those guys, and want us all to be shocked when it did not work out. And he left the Shiites and Kurds in Iraq to the whims of Saddam. The US government sold Saddam weapons of mass destruction under If Saddam was worse than Hitler, why leave him in power? Granted, now it’s obvious why they left Saddam in place, but why use the “worse than Hitler” line? Why not just say it’s about oil? Why not just say it’s about the commodity that makes the world run? The world might be a better place if we were honest about the fact that we act more in line with our interests than our ideals. Yet this supposedly great man would have none of it.

Many pointed to his time in the CIA. He was only director for a year. There have been many unproven rumors that he was involved with them much longer. Even if he wasn’t, Operation Condor was still nasty. In all seriousness, why does the USA try to elimiate radical left-wingers, yet reward radical right-wingers?

Frankly, he was a bad person in a bad family. His father and grandfather helped finance the Nazis. His son was the worst president until the next Republican (which doesn’t exonerate him). His wife was a nasty, mean bitter woman.

My mother thought that perhaps the death of their first daughter was why Barbara Bush was a mean, nasty, bitter woman. I say: so effing what? If your child dies, that is your problem. You have no business taking it out on everybody else. I am not giving them or anyone else any leeway on this. They were and are a terrible family, terrible people.

They display typical Republican logic: They have no problem judging other people. But when something bad happens to them, then it’s all “poor me, poor me, poor me”. If one of your children dies, and you still cannot grasp that things in life can just happen to someone else, then you really are a terrible, terrible person.

As an aside: My mother also wondered how it made the surviving daughter feel to hear everyone always say how wonderful her dead sister was, and to be compared to her. Granted, I am not them. Maybe the universe said to them, “Your dead daughter is still under warranty. Here is a replacement. Do not treat her as a separate individual. She’s just a consolation prize, nothing more.” I don’t know what goes on in the brain of Dorothy Bush, but I would guess that being asked “Have you stopped beating your wife?” every day of your life would get old quickly. I assume that being measured against someone who is not even here would be tiring. Maybe being compared with a dead toddler who never could never disapoint her parents was okay with her. It’s a terrible way of parenting. Sort of like blaming your kids for how poor you were. The only thing worse than living in the past is trying to make someone else live in a past that they were not a part of.

GWB was a terrible person and a terrible president. Jeb was a terrible person and a terrible governor. His daughter’s drug problems were “a private matter” while a lot of people rotted in Florida jails for doing the same thing. Neil Bush has been involved in a lot of shady deals. Marvin and Dorothy are the only ones who do not seem to have any controversy.

A lot of people are upset that Bill Clinton pardoned Mark Rich who had given a lot of money to the DNC. Yet a lot of people seem to forget that GHWB pardoned a lot of people who could have gotten him into trouble over the Iran-Contra scandal.  It is amazing that Iran-Contra did not get any mention in the aftermath of GHWB’s death, considering how upset a lot of Republicans are about the nuclear deal with Iran. GHWB pardoned someone who could probably have landed him in jail, yet we are supposed to believe that he is different than Trump.

Is it wrong to criticize GHWB? Am I “speaking ill of the dead”?

One of the possible origins of the taboo of “speaking ill of the dead” is people were afraid what others will say about them after their own death. I know that if most people think of me at all, they do not think of me highly. People will think whatever they want, and there is not much I can do about it. When you are a man that women hate, you learn things.

Another possible origin of the taboo is that the dead person cannot defend themselves. If you do not to be criticized in death, be a good person in life. GHWB had 94 to not be a terrible person. If someone wrote a critical article about GHWB a few months ago, nobody would have complained or thought it was out of line. If it was okay then, it should be okay now. Besides, it’s not like a former president would care what a random blogger writes. People who say we should not speak ill of the dead are like people who get tattoos saying “Only god can judge me”: They usually deserve it.

Saying that a bad person did bad things is not speaking ill of them. It is just speaking the truth. This guy was president. He made decisions that affected the whole world, most of whom had no say in his rise to power. He was a terrible parent who raised terrible children who themselves made bad decisions that also went on to have bad affects on the world. It is better for us to understand the world as it is than hide behind fake courtesy and outdated taboos.

I did not ask him to appease the religious right. I did not ask him to raise a man-child and help his son’s political careers. The basic story of the past thirty years of the USA is that the conservative movement has brought together the theocrats and the moneymen who care more about party than country, who care more about power than humanity. GHWB chose to be a part of this. He could have walked away. The first buildings on the famous Bush Compound in Kennebunkport, Maine was built by his great-grandfather in the late 19th century. This family had wealth. He did not need to be president. He chose it. He chose to ally himself with power-hungry zealots and money changers of the temple who just want to watch the world burn.

And let’s stop the nonsense that GHWB and Trump are different in kind as well as degree. Trump is the natural conclusion of the Republicans pushing fear and hate, the same trend that GHWB was a part of. Tax cuts for the rich, putting corporations over people, wacko judges, hatred for the poor, for those who are different. It’s the same merging of church and bank today as it was then.

Big Jim does not think the sins of today should excuse the sins of the past.

“The Fall of Icarus” by Jacob Peter Gowy  (c. 1610 – after 1644 and before 1664), at Museo Nacional del Prado in Madrid, assumed allowed under Fair Use.

Share

2018-11 Dividend Income Report

Here is the dividend income report for November, 2018.

The monthly dividend income came out to $50.86. The yearly income total for 2018 through the end of the month was $4657.77.

The income for November, 2017 was $560.60, and the yearly income for 2017 through the end of November was $5699.20.

Over the past year, I have moved most of my money into dividend growth ETFs. I have not paid as much attention to individual stocks. I have not downloaded the U.S. Dividend Champions spreadsheet every month since I switched from stocks to ETFs.  I found out that the original maintainer, David Fish, died recently. See articles on Seeking Alpha here by Mike Nadel  and here by Abby Carmel. It is now updated by Justin Law. The writer at Dividend Growth Investor also puts out their own version of the Dividend Champions spreadsheet. In fact, it was at Dividend Growth Investor that I first heard about the death of David Fish.

One of the tributes on Seeking Alpha said that David Fish did not like the idea of telling people what to buy. A few times people have asked me about investing, and I told them about DGI and the Champion spreadsheet. That alone could guide someone’s investment plan.

The Dividend Champion list divides companies into three categories depending on how long they have been raising their dividends: Champions (25 or more years), Contenders (10 to 24 years), and Challengers (5 to 9 years). Even if you using just ETFs (as I am), it is still a good idea to look at this list once in a while because it will tell you how many companies are raising dividends, and in my opinion give you a tool to gauge the health of the economy. Here is a table for the breakdown of CCC companies for every December from 2010 to 2018.

Year Champions Contenders Challengers Total
2018 865 130 200 535
2017 815 113 222 480
2016 764 107 226 431
2015 753 106 253 394
2014 589 105 246 238
2013 471 105 211 155
2012 466 106 180 180
2011 449 102 145 202
2010 417 98 129 190

Look at that. Mostly increasing numbers. While Obama was president. I guess our not-so-liberal media is wrong when they tell us that things go better with the GOP in charge.

One issue with dividend investing is how it will do in a downturn. It did well in the past two downturns, so I think there is a good chance it will do well in the next. Mike Nadel mentions this in his remembrance of David Fish. He mentions an article in the New York Times saying DGI is not a great strategy since companies could cut dividends when the economy contracts. He wrote a rebuttal, inspired by something David Fish wrote to him: Actually, more than 70% of companies that were Dividend Champions back in 2007 continued to raise dividends through the recession, and another 9% merely froze their dividends. So approximately 80% did NOT cut their dividends.

The funny thing is that if the economy contracts, indexing will not do well either. Nor would active stock picking. It seems like it is the people who push buybacks and capital gains who speak of the benefits of their strategies in terms of absolutes, and ignore the times their strategies do not work. The DGI crowd talks about probabilities. It is a better way to approach life.

Here is a table with the year-to-date amounts, the monthly amounts, and the three- and twelve-month moving averages for each November from 2011 through 2018:

Month YTD Amount 3MMA 12MMA
2018-11 $4657.77 $50.86 $562.56 $541.30
2017-11 $5699.20 $560.60 $559.31 $560.58
2016-11 $5048.77 $506.98 $502.98 $500.27
2015-11 $4517.55 $460.83 $477.55 $452.28
2014-11 $3528.16 $291.27 $357.30 $343.53
2013-11 $2811.61 $252.75 $277.74 $291.48
2012-11 $2898.91 $247.99 $262.78 $284.49
2011-11 $2577.05 $246.37 $232.84 $240.81

Here are the stocks and the income amounts for November, 2018:

  • Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF: $39.79
  • Vanguard Total International Bond ETF: $11.07

Big Jim wishes he could have thanked David Fish while he had the chance.

“Pegasus Departing” by Albert Pinkham Ryder (1847 – 1917) at the Smithsonian Museum,  assumed allowed under Fair Use.

Share

Another Glibertarian Encounter

At a Meetup recently, I met a recent transplant from Louisiana. He was here to escape from religion. He also said he was a libertarian. I blogged a few years ago that I met a libertarian that did not seem crazy, but I am back to my default position that most people who go around calling themselves “libertarian” are generally either lying to themselves, or to the rest of us.

This guy claimed he was sick of “both parties”, but he spent a lot of time criticizing Democrats and defending Republicans. He also said he generally votes for Republicans. But don’t call him a Republican, because he is so not a Republican! (I think he is on one of the panels of the “24 Types of Libertarian“, but NOT the Libertarian Bingo Card.)

He went on and on about how he was sooooo much smarter than his co-workers who loved Beto O’Rourke, but could not explain why they are voting for him. (Hint: He is not a theocrat, as Cruz is and his father most certainly is; if you are an atheist, that should be good enough.) He had some nice things to say about Ted Cruz.

Personally, I do not think Ted Cruz is as smart as everybody thinks he is. One of the reporters on the Texas Tribcast said she thought that Cruz was smart because he will always give the same answer to the same question. That is not intelligence, that is rigidity. He seems to have the same opinions at 47 as he did at 17. There is the type of intelligence that can think of 100 ways to try to get a square peg into a round hole, and there is the type of intelligence that realizes pretty quickly that maybe trying to put a square peg into a round hole is not a good use of your time. Ted Cruz seems to have a lot of the former.

Granted, like most conservatives, Ted Cruz can show some plasticity at times. Ted Cruz loves to drone on and on about how we should follow the intent of the Founding Fathers. Yet after rulings on gay marriage and the ACA that he did not like, Ted Cruz thought there should be retention elections for the Supreme Court. I guess following the Founders is fine up until you get a ruling you do not like. (A note to originalists: If you can change your mind when you do not like how things are going, then don’t get upset when the rest of us change our minds when we don’t like things.)

Actually, I do think conservatives are consistent. They want power, and to make people they do not like suffer. If they seem to be contradicting themselves, use “Cruz’s Razor” and see how it compares to that.

Anyway, like most conservatives, Cruz might seem smart, but ultimately he believes in his revealed principles, and will ignore any evidence against them.

This glibertarian said he was basing his opinion of Ted Cruz’s intelligence based on what he heard from Cruz’s professors at law school. I said I was basing my opinion of his stupidity based on Cruz’s words and actions. The glibertarian had no response to that.

He also said he liked Ted Cruz because Cruz fights for his beliefs. I guess he does, if he believes he is a liar, his wife is ugly, and his dad assassinated JFK. Not only did Cruz not stand up for himself against Donald Trump, he asked Trump to campaign for him in the recent election. If Ted Cruz won’t stand up for himself or his family, what makes you think that he will stand up for you?

I have tried to keep an open mind about libertarians, but a lot of times if you keep them talking, they are just Republicans who do not want to call themselves Republicans.

Big Jim will stand up for his beliefs, but won’t push them on others.

Stela of Amenemhat and Hemett, Middle Kingdom, early Dynasty 12 (about 1956–1877 BC), at the Art Institute Of Chicago, assumed allowed under Fair Use.

Share

Thoughts On The Austin Water Shortage

Recently, there was a warning from the City of Austin that residents should boil water before using it for cooking or consumption. There was a lot of flooding upstream in the rivers that feed into the other Colorado River, which put a lot of silt and solids into the water.

Here is a quote from the link above:
This has been an unprecedented event in Austin Water’s more than 100 years of delivering water to Austin residents. Historic flooding created water that showed over 100 times the level of silt and solids typically than found in our source water. This dramatically changed the way our treatment plants needed to operate to produce high quality water, and decreased the amount of water the plants were able to filter. This required us to slow our water treatment process.

What really bothers me about all of this is that I have not been able to find any information about what they are going to do about this in the future. Climate change is happening now, folks. These floods are just one of the effects, and I think they will become more common. There will be more “unprecedented” events. So how will the city deal with this going forward?

Will they install more filtration systems? I watched a press conference on YouTube, but I did not hear anything about future preventive measures.

I did use the water to brush my teeth the first day. I did not know about the boil order until I got to work. Checking the city’s website to see the status of the water supply is not part of my daily routine.

My apartment complex has had some water issues and they have had to shut off the water several times, so to an extent I was not too bothered by the general ban. When the complex shuts off water, even showers and laundry are unavailable. I have started buying more metal water bottles to store water for shutoffs. When I first moved in, the water was getting shut off every week. I asked them what was going on, and they pulled the old “blame the government” card. The problem with that argument is the place I lived in before was also within Austin’s city limits, and that complex never had water problems.

Several restaurants were affected. Five Guys in Austin were completely shut down that week, and Whataburger only had drive-through.

I have a few more points related to this incident.

Point 1: The mayor’s press conference was first streamed on Facebook. I really wish the world would stop using Facebook, especially governments at all levels. Constituents should be able to get information on government web sites without logging into some other web site, particularly a company that most people do not trust. Do not use Facebook, do not empower Facebook, do not do anything that puts money in the pockets of Mark “privacy for me but not for thee” Snakerberg.

Point 2: I have had a few conversations in the past couple of weeks in which other people mentioned how crazy the weather has been lately. My brother in New York said that there has been no fall this year. In another conversation, one person mentioned that there are more hurricanes predicted, and again their state did not have much of an autumn. I did not say much. I found it interested that nobody said something like, “I guess climate change is really happening.”

Point 3: There were a lot of people on Twitter making the same tired joke that they will just drink more booze. This brings up two things. First, as Kristi Coulter pointed out, alcoholics and addicts are everywhere in our society. Second: As I have mentioned on this site, so many people in Austin think they are so edgy, and so original, and so “weird”, but they really are none of those things. Just people repeating the same stupid stuff, and thinking they are the first person to do so [1]. You could call it the “42 fallacy”: whenever there is a gathering of sci-fi fans or skeptics, if the number 42 comes up, somebody almost always makes a reference to The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy, and they think they are the first person to ever do that. Or that it hasn’t lost its charm after 30 years. It did, about 29 years and 364 days ago.

If you think you are smarter than everybody else, try acting like it.

Note 1: Or they think that Austin is “weird” because there are a lot of people here who would not fit in whatever crazy little church town they are from in the middle of nowhere in Texas. The fact is, there are people in a LOT of places who would not fit in you little crazy church town.

Big Jim hate cliches, and likes being prepared.

“View of Toledo” by El Greco (1541 – 7 April 1614), at El Greco’s site, assumed allowed under Fair Use.

Share